Civic Foresight Markets
Prediction markets that resolve on official records.
Civic Foresight Markets are forecasting venues for legislative outcomes — will a bill clear committee, will it be signed into law, will an executive order survive a court challenge. Markets resolve against Congress.gov, court filings, and other official records. Not against polls, not against opinions.
Markets use virtual market credits, not real currency. Republiq is not a real-money betting product.
How a market moves through its lifecycle
Four stages, all anchored to a verifiable upstream record.
A market is seeded
Markets are seeded by Republiq from active bills, executive orders, and constitutional questions. Each market is linked to a Congress.gov bill ID (or equivalent record identifier) at creation time.
Odds are computed
Yes/no odds are blended from three signals: live legislative status from Congress.gov, a Grok research-agent assessment of the underlying record, and crowd positioning from active bets. Each input is weighted by historical accuracy.
Users stake credits
Users place yes/no positions using virtual market credits. Per-market exposure is capped at a percentage of the user's current balance to prevent any single market from wiping out an account.
Market resolves on the record
When the underlying outcome is settled, the market resolves to yes, no, or invalid. Resolution is pari-mutuel: each winning user receives a share of the total pool proportional to their stake. Invalid markets refund all positions.
Credits and per-market limits
Credits are issued monthly with a daily login bonus. Per-market exposure is capped at 25–40% of current balance.
Free
100 credits / month
20 daily login bonus
- ◆Standard market access
- ◆Daily login bonus
Basic — $5/mo
500 credits / month
50 daily login bonus
- ◆All Free benefits
- ◆Higher per-market caps
Premium — $10/mo
2,000 credits / month
150 daily login bonus
- ◆All Basic benefits
- ◆Streak multiplier
- ◆User-created markets (Phase 2)
Challenge Coins
Challenge Coins are an annual prestige tier — Bronze, Silver, Gold, or Legend — awarded based on a user's yearly Engagement Score. Engagement is computed from forecasting accuracy, market participation, and source-citation use, and is independent of how many credits a user has spent.
Challenge Coins are reputation, not currency. They are not redeemable, transferable, or convertible to credits.
Bronze
Engagement ≥ 65
Silver
Engagement ≥ 80
Gold
Engagement ≥ 90
Legend
Engagement ≥ 100
Resolution rules
- ◆A market resolves to yes or no only when the underlying outcome is reflected in an official record (e.g., a roll-call vote, a signed-into-law status, a court order).
- ◆A market resolves to invalid if the underlying question becomes unresolvable (record withdrawn, scope change, ambiguous outcome). All bets on invalid markets are refunded.
- ◆Settlement is pari-mutuel: a winning user's payout equals their stake's share of the winning pool, drawn from the losing pool.
- ◆Per-market position limits cap individual exposure at a percentage of current balance to prevent single-market wipeouts.
Forecast the record, not the rhetoric.
Markets are part of the free beta. Bring your sharpest reads on what Congress will actually do.